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Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-09-29
  • Total pages :352
  • ISBN : 080413670X
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Summary : A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-12-14
  • Total pages :37
  • ISBN : 1944195483
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Summary : Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread Summaries
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2016-04-05
  • Total pages :36
  • ISBN : 9781945251832
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Summary : Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-09-29
  • Total pages :352
  • ISBN : 0771070535
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Summary : From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows, for the first time, how we can all get better at making predictions. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." The authors show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, learning to think probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-09-24
  • Total pages :352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : 09876543XX
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Summary : Abstract Reflecting on Tetlock and Gardner's "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters"

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-12-14
  • Total pages :36
  • ISBN : 9781522758204
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Summary : PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Broadway Books, 2015, 340 Pages, $17.00 Paperback

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Broadway Books, 2015, 340 Pages, $17.00 Paperback
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2018
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : 09876543XX
GET BOOK HERE

Summary :

Future Babble

Future Babble
  • Author : Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2012-02
  • Total pages :320
  • ISBN : 9780452297579
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Summary : "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

Superforecasting Or Snafu

Superforecasting Or Snafu
  • Author : David L. Raugh
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2019
  • Total pages :137
  • ISBN : 09876543XX
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Summary : What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.

Future Babble

Future Babble
  • Author : Daniel Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2011-03-17
  • Total pages :320
  • ISBN : 1101476095
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Summary : An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Risk

Risk
  • Author : Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2009-02-24
  • Total pages :416
  • ISBN : 1551992108
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Summary : In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.

Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2017-09-05
  • Total pages :368
  • ISBN : 1400888816
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Summary : Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The Future of Almost Everything

The Future of Almost Everything
  • Author : Patrick Dixon
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-08-27
  • Total pages :344
  • ISBN : 1782831819
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Summary : From the man the Wall Street Journal describes as a 'global change guru', more than one hundred of the trends that touch every aspect of our lives. This new and updated edition looks even farther into the future, predicting trends past the first decades of the 22nd century. Patrick Dixon looks at how the future will be Fast, Urban, Tribal, Universal, Radical and Ethical - a future of boom and bust and great economic change as the emerging markets grow up; a future of great advances in medicine and also greater threats from viral epidemics; a future of political shocks and greater conflicts; a future in which people will strive for more privacy and businesses will change the way they relate to their staff and their customers; a future in which there will be driverless cars and solar power generated in the desert will power cities thousands of miles away. In this updated edition, Dixon shows how recent developments confirm his predictive scheme: Artificial intelligence and robotics - profound power and influence over our future world Beyond Brexit - the longer term future of the EU and UK The long-term impact of the MeToo movement The future of Truth - Fake News, propaganda and impact on democracy Presidential leadership - rise of powerful figureheads across the world, and potential future conflicts And in an entirely new chapter, Dixon extends his predictive horizon to see how the future will look one hundred years from now.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-12-14
  • Total pages :36
  • ISBN : 9781522758204
GET BOOK HERE

Summary : PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Mindware

Mindware
  • Author : Richard Nisbett
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-08-18
  • Total pages :400
  • ISBN : 0385681003
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Summary : Learn how to think more effectively, at work and at home. Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home and work and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behaviour and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions. He has made a distinguished career of studying and teaching such powerful problem-solving concepts as the law of large numbers, statistical regression, cost-benefit analysis, sunk costs and opportunity costs, and causation and correlation, probing how best to teach others to use them effectively in their daily lives. In this groundbreaking book, he shows that a course in a given field--statistics or economics, for example--often doesn't work as well as a few minutes of more practical instruction in analyzing everyday situations. Mindware shows how to reframe common problems in such a way that these powerful scientific and statistical concepts can be applied to them. The result is an enlightening and practical guide to the most powerful tools of reasoning ever developed--tools that can easily be used to make better professional, business and personal decisions.

Unmaking the West

Unmaking the West
  • Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Geoffrey Parker
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2006
  • Total pages :415
  • ISBN : 9780472031436
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Summary : What if the Persians had won at Salamis? What if Christ had not been crucified? What if the Chinese had harnessed steam power before the West? Disparaged by some as a mere parlor game, counterfactual history is seen by others as an indispensable historical tool. Taking as their point of inquiry the debate over the inevitability of the rise of the West, the eminent scholars in Unmaking the West argue that there is no escaping counterfactual history. Whenever we make claims of cause and effect, we commit ourselves to the assumption that if key links in the causal chain were broken, history would have unfolded otherwise. Likewise, without counterfactual history we all too easily slip into the habit of hindsight bias, forgetting, as soon as we learn what happened, how unpredictable the world looked beforehand, and closing our minds to all the ways the course might have changed. This collection is thus both an exploration of alternative scenarios to world history and an exercise in testing the strengths and weaknesses of counterfactual experiments. "If ever there was an argument for the usefulness of counterfactual history, this admirable, and admirably focused, collection has convincingly made it." —Robert Cowley, editor of the What If?TM series "With chapters ranging from politics to war to religion to economics and to science and technology, this is the most thematically wide-ranging collection on counterfactuality. An intelligent, cutting-edge study with important things to say." —Jonathan C. D. Clark, Department of History, University of Kansas "This volume is likely to become a standard reference in the literature on historical methodology, and could have a dramatic impact on the way future generations of historians approach disciplinary inquiry. . . . By allowing readers to share in the doubts and epiphanies that lead up to the authors' epistemological revelations, the volume allows readers to grasp the rich potential of approaching their own research from a counterfactual perspective." —Aaron Belkin, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa Barbara Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, and author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Richard Ned Lebow is James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and author of The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders, winner of the Alexander L. George Award for the best book in political psychology.Geoffrey Parker is Andreas Dorpalen Professor of History at Ohio State University, a Fellow of the British Academy, and author of The Military Revolution: Military Innovation and the Rise of the West, 1500-1800, winner of two book prizes.

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2020-07-07
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : 0691215073
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Summary : Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Perfectly Confident

Perfectly Confident
  • Author : Don A. Moore
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2020-05-26
  • Total pages :272
  • ISBN : 0062887777
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Summary : An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Exile on Wall Street

Exile on Wall Street
  • Author : Mike Mayo
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2011-11-15
  • Total pages :208
  • ISBN : 1118115465
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Summary : An insider points out the holes that still exist on Wall Street and in the banking system Exile on Wall Street is a gripping read for anyone with an interest in business and finance, U.S. capitalism, the future of banking, and the root causes of the financial meltdown. Award winning, veteran sell side Wall Street analyst Mike Mayo writes about one of the biggest financial and political issues of our time – the role of finance and banks in the US. He has worked at six Wall Street firms, analyzing banks and protesting against bad practices for two decades. In Exile on Wall Street, Mayo: Lays out practices that have diminished capitalism and the banking sector Shares his battle scars from calling truth to power at some of the largest banks in the world and how he survived challenging the status quo to be credited as one of the few who saw the crisis coming Blows the lid off the true inner workings of the big banks and shows the ways in which Wall Street is just as bad today as it was pre-crash. Analyzes the fallout stemming from the market crash, pointing out the numerous holes that still exist in the system, and offers practical solutions. While it provides an education, this is no textbook. It is also an invaluable resource for finance practitioners and citizens alike.

Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets
  • Author : Annie Duke
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2018-02-06
  • Total pages :288
  • ISBN : 0735216363
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Summary : Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.