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The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2007-04-17
  • Total pages :480
  • ISBN : 9781588365835
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Summary : The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

Never Split the Difference

Never Split the Difference
  • Author : Chris Voss,Tahl Raz
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2016-05-17
  • Total pages :288
  • ISBN : 9780062407818
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Summary : A former international hostage negotiator for the FBI offers a new, field-tested approach to high-stakes negotiations—whether in the boardroom or at home. After a stint policing the rough streets of Kansas City, Missouri, Chris Voss joined the FBI, where his career as a hostage negotiator brought him face-to-face with a range of criminals, including bank robbers and terrorists. Reaching the pinnacle of his profession, he became the FBI’s lead international kidnapping negotiator. Never Split the Difference takes you inside the world of high-stakes negotiations and into Voss’s head, revealing the skills that helped him and his colleagues succeed where it mattered most: saving lives. In this practical guide, he shares the nine effective principles—counterintuitive tactics and strategies—you too can use to become more persuasive in both your professional and personal life. Life is a series of negotiations you should be prepared for: buying a car, negotiating a salary, buying a home, renegotiating rent, deliberating with your partner. Taking emotional intelligence and intuition to the next level, Never Split the Difference gives you the competitive edge in any discussion.

The Black Swan: Second Edition

The Black Swan: Second Edition
  • Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2010-05-11
  • Total pages :480
  • ISBN : 9780679604181
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Summary : The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

The Black Swan of Paris

The Black Swan of Paris
  • Author : Karen Robards
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2020-06-30
  • Total pages :400
  • ISBN : 9781488055331
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Summary : “A truly outstanding novel.”—Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz “Emotional and powerful.”—Pam Jenoff, New York Times bestselling author of The Lost Girls of Paris From New York Times bestselling author Karen Robards comes one of the most anticipated novels of the summer… A world at war. A beautiful young star. A mission no one expected. Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, the chanteuse’s position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve knows it won’t be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary—including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected—and in time to save Lillian’s life. For fans of The Nightingale, The Women in the Castle and The Lost Girls of Paris, this exquisite novel illuminates three women’s strength, courage and capacity for unconditional love.

Incerto 5-Book Bundle

Incerto 5-Book Bundle
  • Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2021-05-04
  • Total pages :1872
  • ISBN : 9780593243664
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Summary : The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Mercedes Lackey
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2000-05-01
  • Total pages :416
  • ISBN : 9781101119068
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Summary : After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

Black Swan Green

Black Swan Green
  • Author : David Mitchell
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2006-04-11
  • Total pages :304
  • ISBN : 9781588365286
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Summary : By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan
  • Author : Eric Lybeck
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2017-07-05
  • Total pages :92
  • ISBN : 9781351351195
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Summary : One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Celia Bridle
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2010
  • Total pages :30
  • ISBN : 1921136561
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Summary : A black swan escapes from a cage and flies away to alight at a village by a lake. The villagers there believe that birds are harbingers of good fortune, and each year they build nests beside the lake to lure them. They ask the swan to stay and incubate an egg which was found in one of the nests.

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Summary)

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Summary)
  • Author : QuickRead,Lea Schullery
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2021
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : 1230987654XX
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Summary : Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.

Stalking the Black Swan

Stalking the Black Swan
  • Author : Kenneth A. Posner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2010
  • Total pages :267
  • ISBN : 0231150482
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Summary : Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard?many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal?our computers and our minds?Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Black Swan Lake

Black Swan Lake
  • Author : Rodney James Giblett
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2013
  • Total pages :195
  • ISBN : 9781841507040
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Summary : Tracing the life of the plants and animals of Forrest dale Lake through the six seasons of the local indigenous people, the first part of Black Swan Lake presents a wetlands calendar over a yearly cycle of the rising, falling and drying waters of this internationally important wetland in south-western Australia. The second part of this book considers issues and explores themes from the first part, including a cultural history of the seasons and the black swan. Black Swan Lake is a book of nature writing and environmental history and philosophy arising from living in a particular place with oth.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Wendy E. Nunan,Terence D. Nunan
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1989
  • Total pages :517
  • ISBN : 0731637348
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Summary : Descendants of Edward Swan also know by the name Hornsby. He was transported to Australia as a convict in 1818. His wife Mary Ann and children arrived there in 1823. The family settled in the Illawarra district.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1937
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : UCAL:B2917168
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Summary :

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Thomas Mann
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1990-10-16
  • Total pages :141
  • ISBN : 9780520070097
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Summary : Thomas Mann's bold and disturbing novella, written in 1952, is the feminine counterpart of his masterpiece Death in Venice. Written from the point of view of a woman in what we might now call mid-life crisis, The Black Swan evinces Mann's mastery of psychological analysis and his compelling interest in the intersection of the physical and the spiritual in human behavior. It is startlingly relevant to current discussions of the politics of the body, male inscriptions of the feminine, and discourse about and of women. The new introduction places this dramatic novella in the context of contemporary feminist and literary concerns, bringing it to the attention of a new generation of readers.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : alno highking
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2020-11-04
  • Total pages :50
  • ISBN : 1230987654XX
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Summary : The Realms Stories - The Black Swan "The Swan is worth more than a kingdom. Any king or his army. It is more than just a home for the small and weak. It is a symbol, a warning for those beyond our walls. No matter how low they stand when compared to others, still they stand. We still stand as the Swan, the feared and the dangerous. And that is all because of you, An. All because of you. No matter what happens, you will always stand higher than the skies to me." For lovers of all things Fantasy. From Name of the Wind to The Witcher, Elder Scrolls, Game of Thrones and Beyond, The Faegor Fantasy Universe is an excellent mix between high fantasy with the heartache of grimdark, and more than worth giving a chance. Faegor Dream One: Ire of The Outsider The Faegor Songs: The Realms Stories: The Black Swan Other Works: Sage Star Eater Broken Utopia: Season One

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
  • Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2011
  • Total pages :444
  • ISBN : 1846145651
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Summary : A slipcased hardback edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's bestselling masterpiece, with the original first Penguin edition artwork.What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Black Swan Start-ups

Black Swan Start-ups
  • Author : Sami Mahroum
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2016-05-11
  • Total pages :254
  • ISBN : 9781137577276
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Summary : This book explores startups that have thrived against the odds in places where startup success was deemed to be unlikely. Discussing a number of technology startups from around the world that have succeeded without state backing nor local venture and seed capital, Black Swan Start Ups provides unique insights into unsung models of success beyond the two dominant narratives of Asia’s ‘Tiger Economies’ and America’s Silicon Valley miracle. The author describes these stories of success as ‘black swan events’ and ascribes their achievements to the ability of entrepreneurs to leverage the ‘place surplus’ of their locations, while building connections to support networks outside their immediate geographies. Including case studies such as Skype in Estonia, SoundCloud in Germany and Bayt.Com in Dubai, this insightful book gives a holistic and wide-ranging view of how technology startups have, and can, succeed in less likely places.

Keeper of the Lost Cities

Keeper of the Lost Cities
  • Author : Shannon Messenger
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2013-08-06
  • Total pages :512
  • ISBN : 9781442445949
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Summary : At age twelve, Sophie learns that the remarkable abilities that have always caused her to stand out identify her as an elf, and after being brought to Eternalia to hone her skills, discovers that she has secrets buried in her memory for which some would kill.

Fooled by Randomness

Fooled by Randomness
  • Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2008-10-14
  • Total pages :368
  • ISBN : 9781588367679
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Summary : Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

The Black Swan of Trespass

The Black Swan of Trespass
  • Author : Humphrey McQueen
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1979
  • Total pages :178
  • ISBN : PSU:000005895854
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Summary : Proof copy of book published by Alternative Publishing Cooperative, 1979. Pages 3, 11-31 omitted from manuscript.