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The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise
  • Author : Nate Silver
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2012-09-27
  • Total pages :544
  • ISBN : 9781101595954
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Summary : "One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise
  • Author : Silvia Moreno-Garcia
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-02-10
  • Total pages :272
  • ISBN : 9781849978903
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Summary : Magic will break your heart. Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange... Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise
  • Author : Eric S. Nylund
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1999-06-01
  • Total pages :400
  • ISBN : 0380792923
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Summary : Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise
  • Author : Neil Gaiman
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2016-11-30
  • Total pages :96
  • ISBN : 9781630089658
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Summary : A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise
  • Author : Wim C. Van Etten
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2006-02-03
  • Total pages :270
  • ISBN : 9780470024126
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Summary : Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2012-11
  • Total pages :46
  • ISBN : 1623150523
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Summary : The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Signal

Signal
  • Author : Stephen Few
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-05-01
  • Total pages :225
  • ISBN : 1938377052
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Summary : Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.

Signal Processing Noise

Signal Processing Noise
  • Author : Vyacheslav Tuzlukov
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2018-10-08
  • Total pages :688
  • ISBN : 9781420041118
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Summary : Additive and multiplicative noise in the information signal can significantly limit the potential of complex signal processing systems, especially when those systems use signals with complex phase structure. During the last few years this problem has been the focus of much research, and its solution could lead to profound improvements in applications of complex signals and coherent signal processing. Signal Processing Noise sets forth a generalized approach to signal processing in multiplicative and additive noise that represents a remarkable advance in signal processing and detection theory. This approach extends the boundaries of the noise immunity set by classical and modern signal processing theories, and systems constructed on this basis achieve better detection performance than that of systems currently in use. Featuring the results of the author's own research, the book is filled with examples and applications, and each chapter contains an analysis of recent observations obtained by computer modelling and experiments. Tables and illustrations clearly show the superiority of the generalized approach over both classical and modern approaches to signal processing noise. Addressing a fundamental problem in complex signal processing systems, this book offers not only theoretical development, but practical recommendations for raising noise immunity in a wide range of applications.

Random Signals and Noise

Random Signals and Noise
  • Author : Shlomo Engelberg
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2018-10-03
  • Total pages :216
  • ISBN : 9781420007770
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Summary : Understanding the nature of random signals and noise is critically important for detecting signals and for reducing and minimizing the effects of noise in applications such as communications and control systems. Outlining a variety of techniques and explaining when and how to use them, Random Signals and Noise: A Mathematical Introduction focuses on applications and practical problem solving rather than probability theory. A Firm Foundation Before launching into the particulars of random signals and noise, the author outlines the elements of probability that are used throughout the book and includes an appendix on the relevant aspects of linear algebra. He offers a careful treatment of Lagrange multipliers and the Fourier transform, as well as the basics of stochastic processes, estimation, matched filtering, the Wiener-Khinchin theorem and its applications, the Schottky and Nyquist formulas, and physical sources of noise. Practical Tools for Modern Problems Along with these traditional topics, the book includes a chapter devoted to spread spectrum techniques. It also demonstrates the use of MATLAB® for solving complicated problems in a short amount of time while still building a sound knowledge of the underlying principles. A self-contained primer for solving real problems, Random Signals and Noise presents a complete set of tools and offers guidance on their effective application.

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2012-11-20
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : 9781623150532
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Summary : The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise. Differentiating Stylometric Signals in the Analysis of Literary Texts

The Signal and the Noise. Differentiating Stylometric Signals in the Analysis of Literary Texts
  • Author : Judith Brottrager
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2020
  • Total pages :229
  • ISBN : OCLC:1199748816
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Summary :

Animal Communication and Noise

Animal Communication and Noise
  • Author : Henrik Brumm
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2013-12-16
  • Total pages :453
  • ISBN : 9783642414947
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Summary : The study of animal communication has led to significant progress in our general understanding of motor and sensory systems, evolution, and speciation. However, one often neglected aspect is that signal exchange in every modality is constrained by noise, be it in the transmission channel or in the nervous system. This book analyses whether and how animals can cope with such constraints, and explores the implications that noise has for our understanding of animal communication. It is written by leading biologists working on different taxa including insects, fish, amphibians, lizards, birds, and mammals. In addition to this broad taxonomic approach, the chapters also cover a wide array of research disciplines: from the mechanisms of signal production and perception, to the behavioural ecology of signalling, the evolution of animal communication, and conservation issues. This volume promotes the integration of the knowledge gained by the diverse approaches to the study of animal communication and, at the same time, highlights particularly interesting fields of current and future research.

Signal Detection in Non-Gaussian Noise

Signal Detection in Non-Gaussian Noise
  • Author : Saleem A. Kassam
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2012-12-06
  • Total pages :234
  • ISBN : 9781461238348
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Summary : This book contains a unified treatment of a class of problems of signal detection theory. This is the detection of signals in addi tive noise which is not required to have Gaussian probability den sity functions in its statistical description. For the most part the material developed here can be classified as belonging to the gen eral body of results of parametric theory. Thus the probability density functions of the observations are assumed to be known, at least to within a finite number of unknown parameters in a known functional form. Of course the focus is on noise which is not Gaussian; results for Gaussian noise in the problems treated here become special cases. The contents also form a bridge between the classical results of signal detection in Gaussian noise and those of nonparametric and robust signal detection, which are not con sidered in this book. Three canonical problems of signal detection in additive noise are covered here. These allow between them formulation of a range of specific detection problems arising in applications such as radar and sonar, binary signaling, and pattern recognition and classification. The simplest to state and perhaps the most widely studied of all is the problem of detecting a completely known deterministic signal in noise. Also considered here is the detection random non-deterministic signal in noise. Both of these situa of a tions may arise for observation processes of the low-pass type and also for processes of the band-pass type.

Signal Recovery from Noise in Electronic Instrumentation, Second Edition

Signal Recovery from Noise in Electronic Instrumentation, Second Edition
  • Author : T.H Wilmshurst
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1990-01-01
  • Total pages :246
  • ISBN : 1420050656
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Summary : Covering all aspects of the subject, Signal Recovery from Noise in Electronic Instrumentation, Second Edition examines the interference involved with instruments that employ electronic techniques to measure physical quantities, including random fluctuations from thermal or background sources and systematic signal drift or offset. In the case of random noise, the book fully analyzes 1/f as well as white noise. It also discusses the theory and practice of baseline correction, low-pass filtering, multiple time averaging, and phase-sensitive detection. The author explores the best way of measuring the amplitude or the time of occurrence of a signal of known shape. New to this edition are an additional chapter, frequency measurement, and tutorial questions with answers to test understanding of the subject matter. This book will be indispensable to advanced electronics undergraduates, nonspecialist postgraduates using electronic instrumentation, and applied scientists.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2015-09-29
  • Total pages :352
  • ISBN : 9780804136709
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Summary : A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals
  • Author : Gabriel Vasilescu
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2006-01-17
  • Total pages :709
  • ISBN : 9783540265108
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Summary : Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals is a comprehensive reference book on noise and interference in electronic circuits, with particular focus on low-noise design. The first part of the book deals with mechanisms, modelling, and computation of intrinsic noise which is generated in every electronic device. The second part analyzes the coupling mechanisms which can lead to a contamination of circuits by parasitic signals and provides appropriate solutions to this problem. The last part contains more than 100 practical, elaborate case studies. The book requires no advanced mathematical training as it introduces the fundamental methods. Moreover, it provides insight into computational noise analysis with SPICE and NOF, a software developed by the author. The book addresses designers of electronic circuits as well as researchers from electrical engineering, physics, and material science. It should also be of interest for undergraduate and graduate students.

Detection of Signals in Noise

Detection of Signals in Noise
  • Author : Anthony D. Whalen
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2013-09-11
  • Total pages :428
  • ISBN : 9781483220543
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Summary : Detection of Signals in Noise serves as an introduction to the principles and applications of the statistical theory of signal detection. The book discusses probability and random processes; narrowband signals, their complex representation, and their properties described with the aid of the Hilbert transform; and Gaussian-derived processes. The text also describes the application of hypothesis testing for the detection of signals and the fundamentals required for statistical detection of signals in noise. Problem exercises, references, and a supplementary bibliography are included after each chapter. Students taking a graduate course in signal detection theory.

Noise and Vibration Analysis

Noise and Vibration Analysis
  • Author : Anders Brandt
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2011-03-29
  • Total pages :464
  • ISBN : 0470978112
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Summary : Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.

The Financial Rules for New College Graduates: Invest before Paying Off Debt—and Other Tips Your Professors Didn't Teach You

The Financial Rules for New College Graduates: Invest before Paying Off Debt—and Other Tips Your Professors Didn't Teach You
  • Author : Michael C Taylor
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2018-04-12
  • Total pages :209
  • ISBN : 9781440861062
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Summary : An indispensable guide for any recent graduate that provides simple, easy-to-follow rules for making smart personal finance choices during the first decade of one's career. • Demonstrates how simple choices, especially in the years after college, can guarantee (barring misfortunes such as catastrophic illness or drug addiction) a lifelong, healthy relationship with money • Illustrates how to apply the attitudes inherent in modesty, skepticism, and optimism to all financial decision-making, both upon graduating and in the future • Includes a math refresher for understanding the basic principles of interest rates, credit card debt, investment, and retirement savings • Demystifies without boring, simplifies without condescending to, and above all highlights the relevance and practical applications of financial planning during one's first ten years out of school

Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data
  • Author : Charles Wheelan
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :2013-01-07
  • Total pages :302
  • ISBN : 9780393089820
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Summary : “Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

An Introduction to Information Theory

An Introduction to Information Theory
  • Author : John Robinson Pierce
  • Publisher :Unknown
  • Release Date :1980-01-01
  • Total pages :305
  • ISBN : 9780486240619
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Summary : Behind the familiar surfaces of the telephone, radio, and television lies a sophisticated and intriguing body of knowledge known as information theory. This is the theory that has permeated the rapid development of all sorts of communication, from color television to the clear transmission of photographs from the vicinity of Jupiter. Even more revolutionary progress is expected in the future. To give a solid introduction to this burgeoning field, J. R. Pierce has revised his well-received 1961 study of information theory for an up-to-date second edition. Beginning with the origins of the field, Dr. Pierce follows the brilliant formulations of Claude Shannon and describes such aspects of the subject as encoding and binary digits, entropy. language and meaning, efficient encoding , and the noisy channel. He then goes beyond the strict confines of the topic to explore the ways in which information theory relates to physics, cybernetics, psychology, and art. Mathematical formulas are introduced at the appropriate points for the benefit of serious students. A glossary of terms and an appendix on mathematical notation are provided to help the less mathematically sophisticated. J. R. Pierce worked for many years at the Bell Telephone Laboratories, where he became Director of Research in Communications Principles. He is currently affiliated with the engineering department of the California Institute of Technology. While his background is impeccable, Dr. Pierce also possesses an engaging writing style that makes his book all the more welcome. An Introduction to Information Theory continues to be the most impressive non-technical account available and a fascinating introduction to the subject for laymen. "An uncommonly good study. . . . Pierce's volume presents the most satisfying discussion to be found."? Scientific American.